Local Impact of Extending Individual Provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
Local Impact of Extending Individual Provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
BASELINE: Current Law1
REFORM: Current Policy2
CALIBRATION: Joint Committee on Taxation-Style Conventional Models3
BUDGET YEAR: 2026
Congressional District4 |
Change in Tax Liabilities for the Average Household ($) |
Change in Take-Home Pay for the Average Household ($)5 |
AK-00 |
-1,541 |
2,688 |
AL-01 |
-1,237 |
2,092 |
AL-02 |
-1,011 |
1,689 |
AL-03 |
-1,005 |
1,713 |
AL-04 |
-1,104 |
1,806 |
AL-05 |
-1,300 |
2,319 |
AL-06 |
-1,609 |
3,062 |
AL-07 |
-817 |
1,362 |
AR-01 |
-978 |
1,615 |
AR-02 |
-1,182 |
2,119 |
AR-03 |
-1,148 |
2,343 |
AR-04 |
-948 |
1,576 |
AZ-01 |
-1,650 |
3,804 |
AZ-02 |
-1,056 |
1,912 |
AZ-03 |
-823 |
1,263 |
AZ-04 |
-1,439 |
2,713 |
AZ-05 |
-1,473 |
2,751 |
AZ-06 |
-1,118 |
2,081 |
AZ-07 |
-936 |
1,536 |
AZ-08 |
-1,366 |
2,701 |
AZ-09 |
-1,076 |
1,913 |
CA-01 |
-864 |
1,760 |
CA-02 |
-258 |
2,050 |
CA-03 |
-898 |
2,178 |
CA-04 |
-726 |
1,793 |
CA-05 |
-870 |
1,969 |
CA-06 |
-809 |
1,719 |
CA-07 |
-792 |
1,665 |
CA-08 |
-615 |
2,099 |
CA-09 |
-728 |
1,548 |
CA-10 |
-641 |
2,445 |
CA-11 |
-81 |
2,414 |
CA-12 |
-440 |
2,024 |
CA-13 |
-734 |
1,278 |
CA-14 |
-1,066 |
3,560 |
CA-15 |
-30 |
2,645 |
CA-16 |
1,053 |
2,831 |
CA-17 |
-1,534 |
4,683 |
CA-18 |
-782 |
2,295 |
CA-19 |
-823 |
2,877 |
CA-20 |
-775 |
1,468 |
CA-21 |
-766 |
1,339 |
CA-22 |
-715 |
1,215 |
CA-23 |
-673 |
1,237 |
CA-24 |
-603 |
1,897 |
CA-25 |
-594 |
1,268 |
CA-26 |
-566 |
1,923 |
CA-27 |
-546 |
1,455 |
CA-28 |
-671 |
1,990 |
CA-29 |
-546 |
1,118 |
CA-30 |
-551 |
2,037 |
CA-31 |
-546 |
1,173 |
CA-32 |
-404 |
2,137 |
CA-33 |
-602 |
1,211 |
CA-34 |
-620 |
1,153 |
CA-35 |
-559 |
1,084 |
CA-36 |
82 |
2,411 |
CA-37 |
-489 |
1,483 |
CA-38 |
-578 |
1,434 |
CA-39 |
-609 |
1,126 |
CA-40 |
-770 |
2,521 |
CA-41 |
-570 |
1,387 |
CA-42 |
-543 |
1,107 |
CA-43 |
-521 |
1,099 |
CA-44 |
-472 |
1,064 |
CA-45 |
-592 |
1,701 |
CA-46 |
-614 |
1,257 |
CA-47 |
-1,108 |
3,374 |
CA-48 |
-690 |
1,749 |
CA-49 |
-563 |
2,678 |
CA-50 |
-762 |
2,459 |
CA-51 |
-734 |
2,158 |
CA-52 |
-636 |
1,218 |
CO-01 |
-1,391 |
3,106 |
CO-02 |
-1,582 |
3,574 |
CO-03 |
-1,282 |
2,574 |
CO-04 |
-1,477 |
3,025 |
CO-05 |
-1,272 |
2,329 |
CO-06 |
-1,411 |
2,925 |
CO-07 |
-1,326 |
2,666 |
CO-08 |
-1,331 |
2,611 |
CT-01 |
-1,207 |
2,292 |
CT-02 |
-1,293 |
2,496 |
CT-03 |
-1,055 |
2,131 |
CT-04 |
-724 |
3,951 |
CT-05 |
-1,198 |
2,450 |
DC-00 |
-662 |
2,266 |
DE-00 |
-1,163 |
2,232 |
FL-01 |
-1,549 |
2,772 |
FL-02 |
-1,140 |
1,967 |
FL-03 |
-1,223 |
2,149 |
FL-04 |
-1,254 |
2,252 |
FL-05 |
-1,809 |
3,552 |
FL-06 |
-1,240 |
2,221 |
FL-07 |
-1,483 |
2,712 |
FL-08 |
-1,469 |
2,860 |
FL-09 |
-1,100 |
1,860 |
FL-10 |
-1,397 |
2,504 |
FL-11 |
-1,231 |
2,159 |
FL-12 |
-1,301 |
2,319 |
FL-13 |
-1,487 |
2,771 |
FL-14 |
-1,577 |
2,989 |
FL-15 |
-1,406 |
2,507 |
FL-16 |
-1,628 |
3,256 |
FL-17 |
-1,489 |
2,874 |
FL-18 |
-1,143 |
2,011 |
FL-19 |
-2,189 |
4,869 |
FL-20 |
-1,160 |
2,030 |
FL-21 |
-1,829 |
4,063 |
FL-22 |
-1,595 |
3,730 |
FL-23 |
-2,077 |
4,320 |
FL-24 |
-998 |
1,916 |
FL-25 |
-1,601 |
3,122 |
FL-26 |
-1,106 |
2,044 |
FL-27 |
-1,576 |
3,835 |
FL-28 |
-994 |
1,762 |
GA-01 |
-1,014 |
1,849 |
GA-02 |
-750 |
1,287 |
GA-03 |
-1,056 |
1,938 |
GA-04 |
-1,096 |
2,176 |
GA-05 |
-1,118 |
2,708 |
GA-06 |
-1,666 |
3,608 |
GA-07 |
-1,171 |
2,290 |
GA-08 |
-914 |
1,594 |
GA-09 |
-1,143 |
2,131 |
GA-10 |
-1,088 |
2,009 |
GA-11 |
-1,478 |
3,186 |
GA-12 |
-896 |
1,567 |
GA-13 |
-746 |
1,393 |
GA-14 |
-924 |
1,566 |
HI-01 |
-892 |
1,971 |
HI-02 |
-864 |
1,811 |
IA-01 |
-1,258 |
2,176 |
IA-02 |
-1,342 |
2,254 |
IA-03 |
-1,395 |
2,468 |
IA-04 |
-1,335 |
2,288 |
ID-01 |
-1,348 |
2,530 |
ID-02 |
-1,221 |
2,306 |
IL-01 |
-939 |
1,690 |
IL-02 |
-795 |
1,341 |
IL-03 |
-1,219 |
2,453 |
IL-04 |
-1,092 |
2,029 |
IL-05 |
-1,443 |
3,556 |
IL-06 |
-1,368 |
2,650 |
IL-07 |
-814 |
2,229 |
IL-08 |
-1,385 |
2,676 |
IL-09 |
-1,555 |
3,740 |
IL-10 |
-1,811 |
4,044 |
IL-11 |
-1,441 |
2,721 |
IL-12 |
-1,172 |
1,912 |
IL-13 |
-1,206 |
2,019 |
IL-14 |
-1,360 |
2,495 |
IL-15 |
-1,317 |
2,244 |
IL-16 |
-1,311 |
2,248 |
IL-17 |
-1,118 |
1,848 |
IN-01 |
-1,209 |
2,031 |
IN-02 |
-1,260 |
2,124 |
IN-03 |
-1,350 |
2,278 |
IN-04 |
-1,230 |
2,080 |
IN-05 |
-1,693 |
3,182 |
IN-06 |
-1,098 |
1,784 |
IN-07 |
-1,117 |
1,915 |
IN-08 |
-1,226 |
2,012 |
IN-09 |
-1,232 |
2,038 |
KS-01 |
-1,150 |
1,920 |
KS-02 |
-1,249 |
2,155 |
KS-03 |
-1,628 |
3,236 |
KS-04 |
-1,152 |
2,028 |
KY-01 |
-998 |
1,612 |
KY-02 |
-1,074 |
1,764 |
KY-03 |
-1,085 |
2,007 |
KY-04 |
-1,333 |
2,345 |
KY-05 |
-893 |
1,361 |
KY-06 |
-1,137 |
1,960 |
LA-01 |
-1,559 |
2,806 |
LA-02 |
-862 |
1,422 |
LA-03 |
-1,302 |
2,130 |
LA-04 |
-1,029 |
1,731 |
LA-05 |
-1,092 |
1,771 |
LA-06 |
-1,447 |
2,485 |
MA-01 |
-1,135 |
2,057 |
MA-02 |
-1,226 |
2,592 |
MA-03 |
-1,326 |
2,770 |
MA-04 |
-1,654 |
4,486 |
MA-05 |
-1,575 |
4,207 |
MA-06 |
-1,411 |
3,294 |
MA-07 |
-1,022 |
2,306 |
MA-08 |
-1,326 |
3,179 |
MA-09 |
-1,243 |
2,721 |
MD-01 |
-842 |
1,964 |
MD-02 |
-662 |
1,814 |
MD-03 |
-554 |
1,711 |
MD-04 |
-196 |
1,051 |
MD-05 |
-168 |
1,061 |
MD-06 |
-787 |
2,250 |
MD-07 |
-640 |
1,756 |
MD-08 |
-851 |
2,742 |
ME-01 |
-1,256 |
2,431 |
ME-02 |
-1,088 |
1,822 |
MI-01 |
-1,167 |
2,059 |
MI-02 |
-1,245 |
2,138 |
MI-03 |
-1,289 |
2,261 |
MI-04 |
-1,267 |
2,205 |
MI-05 |
-1,255 |
2,149 |
MI-06 |
-1,421 |
2,602 |
MI-07 |
-1,477 |
2,654 |
MI-08 |
-1,054 |
1,706 |
MI-09 |
-1,398 |
2,447 |
MI-10 |
-1,266 |
2,328 |
MI-11 |
-1,479 |
2,842 |
MI-12 |
-983 |
1,707 |
MI-13 |
-961 |
1,694 |
MN-01 |
-1,259 |
2,226 |
MN-02 |
-1,382 |
2,632 |
MN-03 |
-1,419 |
3,352 |
MN-04 |
-1,211 |
2,423 |
MN-05 |
-934 |
1,998 |
MN-06 |
-1,383 |
2,567 |
MN-07 |
-1,251 |
2,143 |
MN-08 |
-1,199 |
2,065 |
MO-01 |
-992 |
1,797 |
MO-02 |
-1,908 |
3,790 |
MO-03 |
-1,384 |
2,416 |
MO-04 |
-1,162 |
1,919 |
MO-05 |
-1,057 |
1,805 |
MO-06 |
-1,304 |
2,226 |
MO-07 |
-1,093 |
1,883 |
MO-08 |
-1,136 |
1,874 |
MS-01 |
-987 |
1,630 |
MS-02 |
-750 |
1,200 |
MS-03 |
-1,109 |
1,919 |
MS-04 |
-1,011 |
1,644 |
MT-01 |
-1,237 |
2,369 |
MT-02 |
-1,237 |
2,369 |
NC-01 |
-975 |
1,617 |
NC-02 |
-1,594 |
3,175 |
NC-03 |
-1,096 |
1,852 |
NC-04 |
-1,303 |
2,516 |
NC-05 |
-1,120 |
1,973 |
NC-06 |
-1,142 |
2,082 |
NC-07 |
-1,254 |
2,285 |
NC-08 |
-1,241 |
2,267 |
NC-09 |
-1,174 |
2,094 |
NC-10 |
-1,126 |
1,953 |
NC-11 |
-1,092 |
2,082 |
NC-12 |
-1,159 |
2,255 |
NC-13 |
-1,429 |
2,700 |
NC-14 |
-1,248 |
2,426 |
ND-00 |
-1,648 |
2,919 |
NE-01 |
-1,461 |
2,557 |
NE-02 |
-1,795 |
3,255 |
NE-03 |
-1,269 |
2,158 |
NH-01 |
-1,632 |
3,203 |
NH-02 |
-1,587 |
3,077 |
NJ-01 |
-1,011 |
1,918 |
NJ-02 |
-1,018 |
1,948 |
NJ-03 |
-1,090 |
2,393 |
NJ-04 |
-1,088 |
2,529 |
NJ-05 |
-940 |
2,775 |
NJ-06 |
-1,079 |
2,263 |
NJ-07 |
-1,101 |
3,535 |
NJ-08 |
-971 |
1,864 |
NJ-09 |
-809 |
1,903 |
NJ-10 |
-728 |
1,675 |
NJ-11 |
-1,086 |
3,154 |
NJ-12 |
-1,122 |
2,729 |
NM-01 |
-1,054 |
1,899 |
NM-02 |
-959 |
1,600 |
NM-03 |
-987 |
1,777 |
NV-01 |
-1,272 |
2,453 |
NV-02 |
-1,615 |
3,236 |
NV-03 |
-1,471 |
2,909 |
NV-04 |
-1,042 |
1,828 |
NY-01 |
-555 |
2,377 |
NY-02 |
-567 |
1,663 |
NY-03 |
-748 |
2,804 |
NY-04 |
-566 |
1,933 |
NY-05 |
-403 |
856 |
NY-06 |
-666 |
1,340 |
NY-07 |
-218 |
1,431 |
NY-08 |
-595 |
1,285 |
NY-09 |
-337 |
1,491 |
NY-10 |
136 |
1,513 |
NY-11 |
-221 |
1,422 |
NY-12 |
1,196 |
1,556 |
NY-13 |
-617 |
1,144 |
NY-14 |
-415 |
1,093 |
NY-15 |
-522 |
1,038 |
NY-16 |
-301 |
1,998 |
NY-17 |
-667 |
2,402 |
NY-18 |
-918 |
2,116 |
NY-19 |
-1,066 |
1,868 |
NY-20 |
-1,059 |
2,058 |
NY-21 |
-1,080 |
1,848 |
NY-22 |
-1,145 |
1,927 |
NY-23 |
-1,173 |
1,993 |
NY-24 |
-1,224 |
2,099 |
NY-25 |
-1,149 |
2,043 |
NY-26 |
-1,073 |
1,793 |
OH-01 |
-1,458 |
2,672 |
OH-02 |
-1,329 |
2,344 |
OH-03 |
-1,065 |
1,852 |
OH-04 |
-1,322 |
2,350 |
OH-05 |
-1,203 |
2,006 |
OH-06 |
-1,094 |
1,767 |
OH-07 |
-1,365 |
2,380 |
OH-08 |
-1,341 |
2,319 |
OH-09 |
-1,171 |
1,960 |
OH-10 |
-1,147 |
1,988 |
OH-11 |
-1,035 |
1,856 |
OH-12 |
-1,354 |
2,462 |
OH-13 |
-1,265 |
2,175 |
OH-14 |
-1,412 |
2,506 |
OH-15 |
-1,158 |
2,000 |
OK-01 |
-1,225 |
2,277 |
OK-02 |
-926 |
1,536 |
OK-03 |
-1,108 |
1,906 |
OK-04 |
-1,093 |
1,853 |
OK-05 |
-1,200 |
2,145 |
OR-01 |
-907 |
2,213 |
OR-02 |
-945 |
1,953 |
OR-03 |
-705 |
1,724 |
OR-04 |
-930 |
1,815 |
OR-05 |
-900 |
1,941 |
OR-06 |
-918 |
2,137 |
PA-01 |
-1,739 |
3,620 |
PA-02 |
-697 |
1,109 |
PA-03 |
-858 |
1,761 |
PA-04 |
-1,655 |
3,602 |
PA-05 |
-1,412 |
3,044 |
PA-06 |
-1,705 |
3,648 |
PA-07 |
-1,273 |
2,289 |
PA-08 |
-1,113 |
1,876 |
PA-09 |
-1,193 |
2,002 |
PA-10 |
-1,318 |
2,348 |
PA-11 |
-1,369 |
2,389 |
PA-12 |
-1,263 |
2,235 |
PA-13 |
-1,147 |
1,920 |
PA-14 |
-1,321 |
2,277 |
PA-15 |
-1,132 |
1,873 |
PA-16 |
-1,286 |
2,159 |
PA-17 |
-1,634 |
3,049 |
RI-01 |
-1,150 |
2,204 |
RI-02 |
-1,170 |
2,195 |
SC-01 |
-1,433 |
3,109 |
SC-02 |
-1,219 |
2,183 |
SC-03 |
-1,037 |
1,794 |
SC-04 |
-1,230 |
2,278 |
SC-05 |
-1,094 |
1,925 |
SC-06 |
-933 |
1,668 |
SC-07 |
-1,030 |
1,788 |
SD-00 |
-1,635 |
2,943 |
TN-01 |
-1,105 |
1,935 |
TN-02 |
-1,531 |
2,758 |
TN-03 |
-1,273 |
2,301 |
TN-04 |
-1,208 |
2,144 |
TN-05 |
-1,505 |
2,899 |
TN-06 |
-1,371 |
2,516 |
TN-07 |
-1,592 |
3,139 |
TN-08 |
-1,604 |
3,256 |
TN-09 |
-835 |
1,465 |
TX-01 |
-1,183 |
2,198 |
TX-02 |
-1,587 |
3,109 |
TX-03 |
-2,037 |
4,218 |
TX-04 |
-1,666 |
3,351 |
TX-05 |
-1,442 |
2,917 |
TX-06 |
-1,230 |
2,323 |
TX-07 |
-1,677 |
3,443 |
TX-08 |
-1,925 |
3,983 |
TX-09 |
-1,045 |
1,920 |
TX-10 |
-1,586 |
3,106 |
TX-11 |
-1,413 |
2,812 |
TX-12 |
-1,408 |
2,768 |
TX-13 |
-1,341 |
2,493 |
TX-14 |
-1,247 |
2,295 |
TX-15 |
-893 |
1,453 |
TX-16 |
-962 |
1,571 |
TX-17 |
-1,283 |
2,432 |
TX-18 |
-1,235 |
2,289 |
TX-19 |
-1,125 |
2,151 |
TX-20 |
-962 |
1,641 |
TX-21 |
-1,825 |
3,885 |
TX-22 |
-1,637 |
3,297 |
TX-23 |
-1,132 |
2,142 |
TX-24 |
-1,899 |
3,913 |
TX-25 |
-1,407 |
2,766 |
TX-26 |
-1,751 |
3,601 |
TX-27 |
-1,061 |
1,895 |
TX-28 |
-917 |
1,490 |
TX-29 |
-762 |
1,202 |
TX-30 |
-981 |
1,734 |
TX-31 |
-1,724 |
3,180 |
TX-32 |
-1,710 |
3,509 |
TX-33 |
-1,004 |
1,744 |
TX-34 |
-861 |
1,379 |
TX-35 |
-1,124 |
1,977 |
TX-36 |
-1,262 |
2,293 |
TX-37 |
-1,695 |
3,439 |
TX-38 |
-1,970 |
4,082 |
UT-01 |
-1,184 |
2,349 |
UT-02 |
-1,198 |
2,354 |
UT-03 |
-1,326 |
2,846 |
UT-04 |
-1,126 |
2,177 |
VA-01 |
-1,160 |
2,414 |
VA-02 |
-1,018 |
1,993 |
VA-03 |
-826 |
1,519 |
VA-04 |
-991 |
1,978 |
VA-05 |
-1,109 |
2,218 |
VA-06 |
-1,171 |
2,285 |
VA-07 |
-1,145 |
2,499 |
VA-08 |
-1,084 |
3,131 |
VA-09 |
-976 |
1,673 |
VA-10 |
-1,405 |
3,591 |
VA-11 |
-1,148 |
3,060 |
VT-00 |
-1,180 |
2,203 |
WA-01 |
-2,211 |
5,236 |
WA-02 |
-1,721 |
3,729 |
WA-03 |
-1,442 |
2,718 |
WA-04 |
-1,302 |
2,291 |
WA-05 |
-1,413 |
2,522 |
WA-06 |
-1,440 |
2,896 |
WA-07 |
-2,306 |
5,506 |
WA-08 |
-2,028 |
4,642 |
WA-09 |
-2,017 |
4,735 |
WA-10 |
-1,264 |
2,360 |
WI-01 |
-1,272 |
2,288 |
WI-02 |
-1,415 |
2,652 |
WI-03 |
-1,258 |
2,099 |
WI-04 |
-924 |
1,623 |
WI-05 |
-1,497 |
2,812 |
WI-06 |
-1,340 |
2,390 |
WI-07 |
-1,278 |
2,185 |
WI-08 |
-1,402 |
2,424 |
WV-01 |
-973 |
1,562 |
WV-02 |
-1,079 |
1,812 |
WY-00 |
-1,600 |
3,185 |
Source: Tax-Calculator (v.4.4.1); Tax-Microdata-Benchmarking (v.0.7.0). See github.com/PSLmodels for open-source code.
- The current law baseline assumes that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)’s temporary provisions expire after 2025.
- The current policy reform assumes that the TCJA’s temporary provisions are extended beyond 2025.
- The revenue modeling is calibrated to the Joint Committee on Taxation’s conventional models and considers two types of behavioral response triggered by the reform: (1) the substitution elasticity of taxable income, defined as proportional change in taxable income divided by proportional change in marginal net-of-tax rate on taxpayer earnings, and (2) the semi-elasticity of long-term capital gains, defined as change in logarithm of long-term capital gains divided by change in marginal tax rate on long-term capital gains. The first parameter (“be_sub” in the Behavioral-Response model) is set at 0.25, and the second parameter (“be_cg”) is set at -3.45.
- This simulation includes 435 Congressional Districts and the District of Columbia.
- The change in take-home pay has two components: the change in tax liabilities (direct effect) and the change in pre-tax income from extending the TCJA individual provisions. It does not include the pre-tax income change from extending the TCJA business provisions.