Fiscal & Regulatory Analysis | Office for Fiscal and Regulatory Analysis

Local Impact of Extending Individual Provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

April 9, 2025

Local Impact of Extending Individual Provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

BASELINE: Current Law1
REFORM
: Current Policy2
CALIBRATION
: Joint Committee on Taxation-Style Conventional Models3
BUDGET YEAR
: 2026

Congressional District4

Change in Tax Liabilities for the Average Household ($)

Change in Take-Home Pay for the Average Household ($)5

AK-00

-1,541

2,688

AL-01

-1,237

2,092

AL-02

-1,011

1,689

AL-03

-1,005

1,713

AL-04

-1,104

1,806

AL-05

-1,300

2,319

AL-06

-1,609

3,062

AL-07

-817

1,362

AR-01

-978

1,615

AR-02

-1,182

2,119

AR-03

-1,148

2,343

AR-04

-948

1,576

AZ-01

-1,650

3,804

AZ-02

-1,056

1,912

AZ-03

-823

1,263

AZ-04

-1,439

2,713

AZ-05

-1,473

2,751

AZ-06

-1,118

2,081

AZ-07

-936

1,536

AZ-08

-1,366

2,701

AZ-09

-1,076

1,913

CA-01

-864

1,760

CA-02

-258

2,050

CA-03

-898

2,178

CA-04

-726

1,793

CA-05

-870

1,969

CA-06

-809

1,719

CA-07

-792

1,665

CA-08

-615

2,099

CA-09

-728

1,548

CA-10

-641

2,445

CA-11

-81

2,414

CA-12

-440

2,024

CA-13

-734

1,278

CA-14

-1,066

3,560

CA-15

-30

2,645

CA-16

1,053

2,831

CA-17

-1,534

4,683

CA-18

-782

2,295

CA-19

-823

2,877

CA-20

-775

1,468

CA-21

-766

1,339

CA-22

-715

1,215

CA-23

-673

1,237

CA-24

-603

1,897

CA-25

-594

1,268

CA-26

-566

1,923

CA-27

-546

1,455

CA-28

-671

1,990

CA-29

-546

1,118

CA-30

-551

2,037

CA-31

-546

1,173

CA-32

-404

2,137

CA-33

-602

1,211

CA-34

-620

1,153

CA-35

-559

1,084

CA-36

82

2,411

CA-37

-489

1,483

CA-38

-578

1,434

CA-39

-609

1,126

CA-40

-770

2,521

CA-41

-570

1,387

CA-42

-543

1,107

CA-43

-521

1,099

CA-44

-472

1,064

CA-45

-592

1,701

CA-46

-614

1,257

CA-47

-1,108

3,374

CA-48

-690

1,749

CA-49

-563

2,678

CA-50

-762

2,459

CA-51

-734

2,158

CA-52

-636

1,218

CO-01

-1,391

3,106

CO-02

-1,582

3,574

CO-03

-1,282

2,574

CO-04

-1,477

3,025

CO-05

-1,272

2,329

CO-06

-1,411

2,925

CO-07

-1,326

2,666

CO-08

-1,331

2,611

CT-01

-1,207

2,292

CT-02

-1,293

2,496

CT-03

-1,055

2,131

CT-04

-724

3,951

CT-05

-1,198

2,450

DC-00

-662

2,266

DE-00

-1,163

2,232

FL-01

-1,549

2,772

FL-02

-1,140

1,967

FL-03

-1,223

2,149

FL-04

-1,254

2,252

FL-05

-1,809

3,552

FL-06

-1,240

2,221

FL-07

-1,483

2,712

FL-08

-1,469

2,860

FL-09

-1,100

1,860

FL-10

-1,397

2,504

FL-11

-1,231

2,159

FL-12

-1,301

2,319

FL-13

-1,487

2,771

FL-14

-1,577

2,989

FL-15

-1,406

2,507

FL-16

-1,628

3,256

FL-17

-1,489

2,874

FL-18

-1,143

2,011

FL-19

-2,189

4,869

FL-20

-1,160

2,030

FL-21

-1,829

4,063

FL-22

-1,595

3,730

FL-23

-2,077

4,320

FL-24

-998

1,916

FL-25

-1,601

3,122

FL-26

-1,106

2,044

FL-27

-1,576

3,835

FL-28

-994

1,762

GA-01

-1,014

1,849

GA-02

-750

1,287

GA-03

-1,056

1,938

GA-04

-1,096

2,176

GA-05

-1,118

2,708

GA-06

-1,666

3,608

GA-07

-1,171

2,290

GA-08

-914

1,594

GA-09

-1,143

2,131

GA-10

-1,088

2,009

GA-11

-1,478

3,186

GA-12

-896

1,567

GA-13

-746

1,393

GA-14

-924

1,566

HI-01

-892

1,971

HI-02

-864

1,811

IA-01

-1,258

2,176

IA-02

-1,342

2,254

IA-03

-1,395

2,468

IA-04

-1,335

2,288

ID-01

-1,348

2,530

ID-02

-1,221

2,306

IL-01

-939

1,690

IL-02

-795

1,341

IL-03

-1,219

2,453

IL-04

-1,092

2,029

IL-05

-1,443

3,556

IL-06

-1,368

2,650

IL-07

-814

2,229

IL-08

-1,385

2,676

IL-09

-1,555

3,740

IL-10

-1,811

4,044

IL-11

-1,441

2,721

IL-12

-1,172

1,912

IL-13

-1,206

2,019

IL-14

-1,360

2,495

IL-15

-1,317

2,244

IL-16

-1,311

2,248

IL-17

-1,118

1,848

IN-01

-1,209

2,031

IN-02

-1,260

2,124

IN-03

-1,350

2,278

IN-04

-1,230

2,080

IN-05

-1,693

3,182

IN-06

-1,098

1,784

IN-07

-1,117

1,915

IN-08

-1,226

2,012

IN-09

-1,232

2,038

KS-01

-1,150

1,920

KS-02

-1,249

2,155

KS-03

-1,628

3,236

KS-04

-1,152

2,028

KY-01

-998

1,612

KY-02

-1,074

1,764

KY-03

-1,085

2,007

KY-04

-1,333

2,345

KY-05

-893

1,361

KY-06

-1,137

1,960

LA-01

-1,559

2,806

LA-02

-862

1,422

LA-03

-1,302

2,130

LA-04

-1,029

1,731

LA-05

-1,092

1,771

LA-06

-1,447

2,485

MA-01

-1,135

2,057

MA-02

-1,226

2,592

MA-03

-1,326

2,770

MA-04

-1,654

4,486

MA-05

-1,575

4,207

MA-06

-1,411

3,294

MA-07

-1,022

2,306

MA-08

-1,326

3,179

MA-09

-1,243

2,721

MD-01

-842

1,964

MD-02

-662

1,814

MD-03

-554

1,711

MD-04

-196

1,051

MD-05

-168

1,061

MD-06

-787

2,250

MD-07

-640

1,756

MD-08

-851

2,742

ME-01

-1,256

2,431

ME-02

-1,088

1,822

MI-01

-1,167

2,059

MI-02

-1,245

2,138

MI-03

-1,289

2,261

MI-04

-1,267

2,205

MI-05

-1,255

2,149

MI-06

-1,421

2,602

MI-07

-1,477

2,654

MI-08

-1,054

1,706

MI-09

-1,398

2,447

MI-10

-1,266

2,328

MI-11

-1,479

2,842

MI-12

-983

1,707

MI-13

-961

1,694

MN-01

-1,259

2,226

MN-02

-1,382

2,632

MN-03

-1,419

3,352

MN-04

-1,211

2,423

MN-05

-934

1,998

MN-06

-1,383

2,567

MN-07

-1,251

2,143

MN-08

-1,199

2,065

MO-01

-992

1,797

MO-02

-1,908

3,790

MO-03

-1,384

2,416

MO-04

-1,162

1,919

MO-05

-1,057

1,805

MO-06

-1,304

2,226

MO-07

-1,093

1,883

MO-08

-1,136

1,874

MS-01

-987

1,630

MS-02

-750

1,200

MS-03

-1,109

1,919

MS-04

-1,011

1,644

MT-01

-1,237

2,369

MT-02

-1,237

2,369

NC-01

-975

1,617

NC-02

-1,594

3,175

NC-03

-1,096

1,852

NC-04

-1,303

2,516

NC-05

-1,120

1,973

NC-06

-1,142

2,082

NC-07

-1,254

2,285

NC-08

-1,241

2,267

NC-09

-1,174

2,094

NC-10

-1,126

1,953

NC-11

-1,092

2,082

NC-12

-1,159

2,255

NC-13

-1,429

2,700

NC-14

-1,248

2,426

ND-00

-1,648

2,919

NE-01

-1,461

2,557

NE-02

-1,795

3,255

NE-03

-1,269

2,158

NH-01

-1,632

3,203

NH-02

-1,587

3,077

NJ-01

-1,011

1,918

NJ-02

-1,018

1,948

NJ-03

-1,090

2,393

NJ-04

-1,088

2,529

NJ-05

-940

2,775

NJ-06

-1,079

2,263

NJ-07

-1,101

3,535

NJ-08

-971

1,864

NJ-09

-809

1,903

NJ-10

-728

1,675

NJ-11

-1,086

3,154

NJ-12

-1,122

2,729

NM-01

-1,054

1,899

NM-02

-959

1,600

NM-03

-987

1,777

NV-01

-1,272

2,453

NV-02

-1,615

3,236

NV-03

-1,471

2,909

NV-04

-1,042

1,828

NY-01

-555

2,377

NY-02

-567

1,663

NY-03

-748

2,804

NY-04

-566

1,933

NY-05

-403

856

NY-06

-666

1,340

NY-07

-218

1,431

NY-08

-595

1,285

NY-09

-337

1,491

NY-10

136

1,513

NY-11

-221

1,422

NY-12

1,196

1,556

NY-13

-617

1,144

NY-14

-415

1,093

NY-15

-522

1,038

NY-16

-301

1,998

NY-17

-667

2,402

NY-18

-918

2,116

NY-19

-1,066

1,868

NY-20

-1,059

2,058

NY-21

-1,080

1,848

NY-22

-1,145

1,927

NY-23

-1,173

1,993

NY-24

-1,224

2,099

NY-25

-1,149

2,043

NY-26

-1,073

1,793

OH-01

-1,458

2,672

OH-02

-1,329

2,344

OH-03

-1,065

1,852

OH-04

-1,322

2,350

OH-05

-1,203

2,006

OH-06

-1,094

1,767

OH-07

-1,365

2,380

OH-08

-1,341

2,319

OH-09

-1,171

1,960

OH-10

-1,147

1,988

OH-11

-1,035

1,856

OH-12

-1,354

2,462

OH-13

-1,265

2,175

OH-14

-1,412

2,506

OH-15

-1,158

2,000

OK-01

-1,225

2,277

OK-02

-926

1,536

OK-03

-1,108

1,906

OK-04

-1,093

1,853

OK-05

-1,200

2,145

OR-01

-907

2,213

OR-02

-945

1,953

OR-03

-705

1,724

OR-04

-930

1,815

OR-05

-900

1,941

OR-06

-918

2,137

PA-01

-1,739

3,620

PA-02

-697

1,109

PA-03

-858

1,761

PA-04

-1,655

3,602

PA-05

-1,412

3,044

PA-06

-1,705

3,648

PA-07

-1,273

2,289

PA-08

-1,113

1,876

PA-09

-1,193

2,002

PA-10

-1,318

2,348

PA-11

-1,369

2,389

PA-12

-1,263

2,235

PA-13

-1,147

1,920

PA-14

-1,321

2,277

PA-15

-1,132

1,873

PA-16

-1,286

2,159

PA-17

-1,634

3,049

RI-01

-1,150

2,204

RI-02

-1,170

2,195

SC-01

-1,433

3,109

SC-02

-1,219

2,183

SC-03

-1,037

1,794

SC-04

-1,230

2,278

SC-05

-1,094

1,925

SC-06

-933

1,668

SC-07

-1,030

1,788

SD-00

-1,635

2,943

TN-01

-1,105

1,935

TN-02

-1,531

2,758

TN-03

-1,273

2,301

TN-04

-1,208

2,144

TN-05

-1,505

2,899

TN-06

-1,371

2,516

TN-07

-1,592

3,139

TN-08

-1,604

3,256

TN-09

-835

1,465

TX-01

-1,183

2,198

TX-02

-1,587

3,109

TX-03

-2,037

4,218

TX-04

-1,666

3,351

TX-05

-1,442

2,917

TX-06

-1,230

2,323

TX-07

-1,677

3,443

TX-08

-1,925

3,983

TX-09

-1,045

1,920

TX-10

-1,586

3,106

TX-11

-1,413

2,812

TX-12

-1,408

2,768

TX-13

-1,341

2,493

TX-14

-1,247

2,295

TX-15

-893

1,453

TX-16

-962

1,571

TX-17

-1,283

2,432

TX-18

-1,235

2,289

TX-19

-1,125

2,151

TX-20

-962

1,641

TX-21

-1,825

3,885

TX-22

-1,637

3,297

TX-23

-1,132

2,142

TX-24

-1,899

3,913

TX-25

-1,407

2,766

TX-26

-1,751

3,601

TX-27

-1,061

1,895

TX-28

-917

1,490

TX-29

-762

1,202

TX-30

-981

1,734

TX-31

-1,724

3,180

TX-32

-1,710

3,509

TX-33

-1,004

1,744

TX-34

-861

1,379

TX-35

-1,124

1,977

TX-36

-1,262

2,293

TX-37

-1,695

3,439

TX-38

-1,970

4,082

UT-01

-1,184

2,349

UT-02

-1,198

2,354

UT-03

-1,326

2,846

UT-04

-1,126

2,177

VA-01

-1,160

2,414

VA-02

-1,018

1,993

VA-03

-826

1,519

VA-04

-991

1,978

VA-05

-1,109

2,218

VA-06

-1,171

2,285

VA-07

-1,145

2,499

VA-08

-1,084

3,131

VA-09

-976

1,673

VA-10

-1,405

3,591

VA-11

-1,148

3,060

VT-00

-1,180

2,203

WA-01

-2,211

5,236

WA-02

-1,721

3,729

WA-03

-1,442

2,718

WA-04

-1,302

2,291

WA-05

-1,413

2,522

WA-06

-1,440

2,896

WA-07

-2,306

5,506

WA-08

-2,028

4,642

WA-09

-2,017

4,735

WA-10

-1,264

2,360

WI-01

-1,272

2,288

WI-02

-1,415

2,652

WI-03

-1,258

2,099

WI-04

-924

1,623

WI-05

-1,497

2,812

WI-06

-1,340

2,390

WI-07

-1,278

2,185

WI-08

-1,402

2,424

WV-01

-973

1,562

WV-02

-1,079

1,812

WY-00

-1,600

3,185

Source: Tax-Calculator (v.4.4.1); Tax-Microdata-Benchmarking (v.0.7.0). See github.com/PSLmodels for open-source code.

  1. The current law baseline assumes that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)’s temporary provisions expire after 2025.
  2. The current policy reform assumes that the TCJA’s temporary provisions are extended beyond 2025.
  3. The revenue modeling is calibrated to the Joint Committee on Taxation’s conventional models and considers two types of behavioral response triggered by the reform: (1) the substitution elasticity of taxable income, defined as proportional change in taxable income divided by proportional change in marginal net-of-tax rate on taxpayer earnings, and (2) the semi-elasticity of long-term capital gains, defined as change in logarithm of long-term capital gains divided by change in marginal tax rate on long-term capital gains. The first parameter (“be_sub” in the Behavioral-Response model) is set at 0.25, and the second parameter (“be_cg”) is set at -3.45.
  4. This simulation includes 435 Congressional Districts and the District of Columbia.
  5. The change in take-home pay has two components: the change in tax liabilities (direct effect) and the change in pre-tax income from extending the TCJA individual provisions. It does not include the pre-tax income change from extending the TCJA business provisions.

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